MLS 2012 Strength of Schedule - Juggle the Numbers
 
On a whim, I decided to calculate what the strength of schedule for home, away, and overall for MLS teams in 2012 will be, based on performance in 2011.  For 2011 performance, I used Home PPG and Away PPG, and for the new team, Montreal, I took the average of Portland and Vancouver's numbers from last year.

For home games, the algorithm was SUM[for each home game] (APPG(opponent))
For away games, the algorithm was SUM[for each away game] (HPPG(opponent))

This is an attempt to produce the number of expected points against for an average team in that situation.  This undoubtedly produces numbers with a very large error bar, but this was all just a "let's see what happens" exercise.  All of the tables below are in expected points against.

My basic summary: For home games, the West has the hardest time, by far*.  For away games, the difficulty is fairly evenly spread out (its really hard to travel no matter where you are).  Overall, this makes for a bias for harder schedules in the West (is this really a surprise to anyone?).  Relevant to me is that Portland does indeed seem to have a rather difficult schedule (which is what prompted this exercise), but not the hardest.  
*For some definition of far which is basically meaningless due to the error margins of the data.

Home SoS

VAN
SJE
POR
CHV
SEA
COL
FCD
CHI
NY
RSL
MON
LAG
NER
DCU
HOU
SKC
TOR
CLB
PHI
19.5
18.4
18.2
18.2
17.2
17.0
17.0
16.3
16.1
16.1
16.1
15.9
15.9
15.6
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.9
14.6

Away SoS

TOR
RSL
NER
DCU
FCD
POR
VAN
SJE
PHI
COL
CHV
NY
LAG
MON
SKC
CHI
HOU
SEA
CLB
30.2
29.2
29.2
29.1
29.1
29.0
29.0
28.9
28.1
27.9
27.8
27.7
27.7
27.6
27.2
26.7 (tie)
26.7 (tie)
26.6
26.6

Overall SoS

VAN
POR
SJE
FCD
CHV
RSL
TOR
NER
COL
DCU
SEA
NY
MON
LAG
CHI
PHI
SKC
HOU
CLB
48.5
47.3 (tie)
47.3 (tie)
46.1
46.0
45.3
45.3
45.0
44.9
44.7
43.9
43.9
43.6
43.6
43.0
42.7
42.4
42.1
41.4



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