On a whim, I decided to calculate what the strength of schedule for home, away, and overall for MLS teams in 2012 will be, based on performance in 2011. For 2011 performance, I used Home PPG and Away PPG, and for the new team, Montreal, I took the average of Portland and Vancouver's numbers from last year.
For home games, the algorithm was SUM[for each home game] (APPG(opponent))
For away games, the algorithm was SUM[for each away game] (HPPG(opponent))
This is an attempt to produce the number of expected points against for an average team in that situation. This undoubtedly produces numbers with a very large error bar, but this was all just a "let's see what happens" exercise. All of the tables below are in expected points against.
My basic summary: For home games, the West has the hardest time, by far*. For away games, the difficulty is fairly evenly spread out (its really hard to travel no matter where you are). Overall, this makes for a bias for harder schedules in the West (is this really a surprise to anyone?). Relevant to me is that Portland does indeed seem to have a rather difficult schedule (which is what prompted this exercise), but not the hardest.
*For some definition of far which is basically meaningless due to the error margins of the data.
For home games, the algorithm was SUM[for each home game] (APPG(opponent))
For away games, the algorithm was SUM[for each away game] (HPPG(opponent))
This is an attempt to produce the number of expected points against for an average team in that situation. This undoubtedly produces numbers with a very large error bar, but this was all just a "let's see what happens" exercise. All of the tables below are in expected points against.
My basic summary: For home games, the West has the hardest time, by far*. For away games, the difficulty is fairly evenly spread out (its really hard to travel no matter where you are). Overall, this makes for a bias for harder schedules in the West (is this really a surprise to anyone?). Relevant to me is that Portland does indeed seem to have a rather difficult schedule (which is what prompted this exercise), but not the hardest.
*For some definition of far which is basically meaningless due to the error margins of the data.
Home SoS
VAN SJE POR CHV SEA COL FCD CHI NY RSL MON LAG NER DCU HOU SKC TOR CLB PHI | 19.5 18.4 18.2 18.2 17.2 17.0 17.0 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.6 |
Away SoS
TOR RSL NER DCU FCD POR VAN SJE PHI COL CHV NY LAG MON SKC CHI HOU SEA CLB | 30.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 (tie) 26.7 (tie) 26.6 26.6 |
Overall SoS
VAN POR SJE FCD CHV RSL TOR NER COL DCU SEA NY MON LAG CHI PHI SKC HOU CLB | 48.5 47.3 (tie) 47.3 (tie) 46.1 46.0 45.3 45.3 45.0 44.9 44.7 43.9 43.9 43.6 43.6 43.0 42.7 42.4 42.1 41.4 |